The Census Bureau has just released their latest County level population estimates through July 2008. In this post ( Jessup Jottings: Susquehanna County Population Explosion - Really ?? ), I discussed the incredibly high growth projections for Susquehanna County made by the Penn State Data Center(PSDC).
So let's see how those projections stack up to the US Census Bureau latest estimates, released on 19 March 2009. You can find them here ( Population Estimates ) for Pennsylvania and scroll down for Susquehanna County. Remember that PSDC was projecting a straight line growth from the then July 2007 Estimate of 41,115 ( already a 2.6% decline from 2000) to a 2010 projection of 48,523, reflecting an 18% increase in 3 years, to a projected population of 77,530 in 2030.
Unfortunately, the Census Bureau sees a different reality. It revised the 2007 estimate down to 41,024 and set the 2008 estimate at 40,831. This reflects an 8-year decline of 3.3% . The trend is down every year since 2000. To reach the PSDC projection for 2010 requires a 2-year growth of 7,692 people or about 19%.
We don't seem to be going in the right direction. According to this Wall Street Journal article ( U.S. Migration Falls Sharply), we should not expect to see much inbound migration due to the economy. Nor should we expect much from the "gas rush" since prices have dropped by 2/3rds and the uncertainty about land values seems to be slowing the land development process.
So, until the PSDC can can up with some serious fact-based reasoning, I'll stick with my bottom line about their projection : it's "Incredible" - as in literally unbelievable.
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