The exciting news from the Penn State Data Center is a projection that Susquehanna County will grow by 83.6% to 77,530 in 2030 from 42,238 in 2000. Our County's newest projected growth rate is the second highest in the state, behind Pike County's 103.8% projection.
That's fantastically exciting ! But is it believable or just fantasy?
I didn't know, so I went digging for answers and got some interesting information. Bottom Line - It seems Incredible - as in not to be believed. One knowledgeable government staffer said "Outrageous" ; another said "Outlandish". Those statements are supported by the US Census Bureau annual population estimates. There may be an explanation or justification for that Penn State projection, but it eludes me.
Let's look at some facts, starting with the difference between "estimates" and "projections". The authoritative source for estimates is the Census Bureau which makes them annually for the nation, the states, and the counties based on solid data and methodology. The Census Bureau also makes long term projections ( to 2030 and 2050) for the nation and the states (not for counties), but specifies that they are not reliable. After all, projections are basically guesses about the future.
The US Census Bureau estimates for Susquehanna County from 2000 through July 2007 are in this table : Pennsylvania County Population Estimates . The County has declined 1115 people from the 2000 census to latest July 2007 estimate of 41,115 for a 2.6% decline rate over 7 years.
The Penn State Data center agrees and cites these estimates on their reports and in this March 2008 report ( RB032008.pdf ) notes that Susquehanna County lost 302 people in 1 year from 2006 to 2007 for a minus 0.7% growth rate (a decline), ranking it 60th of 67 counties. The table shows that to be the lowest growth rank for all 5 counties in the Northern Tier Region. On the other hand, Pike County was ranked #1 for growth as it has been for 7 years, justifying its #1 ranking in the 2030 projections.
Well, that was March 2008. In November 2008, Penn State published a report ( RB110308.pdf) about county population projections with a pretty color map and the exciting fantastical news that Susquehanna County had exploded to #2 rank in growth from #60. The projection was also published in the January edition of "Township News" creating a stir with local township officials.
Unfortunately, Penn State data Center gave no explanation for this sudden large turn around from population decline to growth. The Northern Tier Regional Planning and Development Commission (NTRPDC), which had published a much smaller 30 year projection in June 2008, thought there must be a transcription or data error. At my request, they contacted the Penn State Data Center and got no explanation or substantiation for the Susquehanna County projection only a bland statement that projections are based on 7-year estimates.
Well, since the Census 7-year estimates show constant decline, not growth, the NTRPDC staff population expert was not persuaded by this explanation. Our county planning department had seen the projection, thought it very high and was told that the Penn State Data Center thought we would go from out-migration to in-migration. Without justification, that's no explanation. My email to the Data Center has gone unanswered.
Of course, there will be real Census data in April 2010. And we can compare that real data to the Penn State Data Center 2010 projection of 48,523 ( an 18% increase in 3 years from 2007). Until then or until the Penn State Data Center comes up with some strong fact-based reasons, their Susquehanna County 2030 projection should be considered "Incredible" - literally unbelievable.
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